All Reports

CES Intelligence's Djibouti 2026 geopolitical risk assessment maps a system that sells security to great powers — eight military tenants, $300M annual rent, a succession vacuum at age 78, and a corridor defection risk from Ethiopia. Three scenarios, calibrated probabilities, and actionable implications for maritime, defence, and sovereign-exposure portfolios.

The kingdom was abolished in 2008; the demand for order was not. This Nepal 2026 geopolitical risk assessment maps a republic governed by fire, rebuilt by water and financed by departures — with three scenarios and board-level implications.

Cambodia has not surrendered its sovereignty to China — it has converted it into a subscription service. This Cambodia 2026 Geopolitical Risk Assessment maps the pricing: PLAN corvettes at a Chinese-built pier, a $1 billion Exim loan sealing the Funan Techo canal, elections pre-decided by lawfare, and a scam crackdown selective enough to reprice the country without touching its sponsors. Three scenarios, calibrated probabilities, and the four bellwethers boards should watch b

First oil is a political event before it is fiscal. The landlocked republic's EACOP corridor, dual executive, and ADF flank converge in October 2026.

Kigali enters late 2026 with its military under US sanctions, its flagship refinery designated, aid relationships severed — yet posting 9.38% growth, tourism up 6%, banking profits at record highs. This CES Intelligence report maps a state that has industrialised the space between sanction and access.

Updated September 22, 2026 — The $40 billion backstop no longer exists as advertised: a Treasury swap stands, a bank facility was shelved, a repo replaces the rest. Milei's fiscal surplus meets 2027's debt wall. Our July assessment has matured: three scenarios run through the 2027 election while Brazil institutionalises the rupture, the Falklands lever moves to statute, and corruption dockets acquire forensic texture.

Updated: Sep 22, 2026 Thailand 2026: The state where geopolitical theatres converge most productively and most precariously. The Iran war transmits through energy imports the kingdom cannot reform; China's infrastructure ambitions have converted its geography into an asset priced in alignment; Myanmar's collapse has installed a criminal economy on its western border; the American alliance has hollowed into a quarterly transaction; upstream hydraulics hold its agricultural hea

Updated 21 Sep 2026 — Turkey was not rewarded in 2026; it was rented out: the Hormuz closure reactivated Kirkuk-Ceyhan (then capped it at 750 kb/d by interim accord on 1 August), CAATSA relief was announced but remains hostage to Congress, and the opposition fractured precisely when it consolidated. Our rent-extraction baseline held; the updated assessment runs three scenarios through 2027 with the lira as the leading indicator of whether the premium survives its own foundati

Sweden and Finland's NATO accession did not end Nordic security — it inverted it. This 2026 assessment maps the Northern Front: shadow fleets, cable sabotage, Gotland, defence budgets, and the American variable no ally controls.

Updated 21 Sep 2026 — Lithuania was not reassured in 2026; it was repositioned: the US rotation gap opened in June, the first drone shootdown occurred in September, and five percent of GDP now finances a deficit with no expiry date. The July hybrid-deterrence scenario has crystallised; the updated assessment runs three scenarios for Q4 2026 through the 2027 posture review.

Updated 21 Sep 2026 — The DRC was not stabilised in 2026; it was auctioned: partitioned in the east, indebted to Washington, mortgaged to Moscow, and governed by a leader rewriting the constitution he swore to uphold. Our July fragmentation scenario is now the baseline; the updated assessment runs three scenarios for the Q2 2027 window — referendum, withdrawal, and the fastest-growing Ebola outbreak on record.

Updated 21 Sep 2026 — Sudan was not divided by the war; it was reorganised by it: partitioned in practice since 2025, drone-contested since September, and now the endpoint of a Hormuz-bypass energy map it cannot defend. Our army-momentum inversion is underway; the updated assessment runs three scenarios through mid-2027.

Updated September 21, 2026 — The southern flank of NATO was not assumed in 2026; it was tested. Rota-Morón access denied, Ceuta breached at scale, PP-Vox transition now probable, Russian LNG window closing by January 2027. Our July analysis flagged three scenarios; the updated Spain 2026 geopolitical risk assessment recalibrates probabilities through November 6 and maps implications for defence, automotive, energy and insurance exposure across the Iberian footprint.

Updated 21 Sep 2026 — Iraq was not stabilised in 2026; it was decompressed: the militia disarmament deadline dissolved in August, oil recovered into a re-closed Hormuz, and the state now pays salaries late. Our managed-fragmentation baseline has become the living trajectory; the updated assessment runs three scenarios from the September US withdrawal through the 2028 political cycle.

Restructured, not resolved: how Colombo's $38.6bn debt settlement, Beijing's refinery and Delhi's energy arteries converge on the March 2027 programme cliff — with three scenarios for boards to price.

Sovereignty in the atoll republic is now denominated in foreign exchange. This Maldives 2026 geopolitical risk assessment maps the sukuk settlement, the defended peg, the Ankara corridor and the surveillance chessboard — with three board-ready scenarios.

El Salvador 2026 is not a safe country. It is a country where violence has been administratively suspended — and the bill arrives in 2027. Full risk assessment.

Namibia has become the quiet coast of the Atlantic: the world's third-largest uranium producer on the one shoreline no great power dominates, sitting on 3.5–3.8 billion undeveloped barrels while Washington, Beijing and Tokyo bid for the same molecules. This 2026 risk assessment maps the Venus FID countdown, SWAPO's centralisation reflex, the Fishrot stress test, and the corridor race against Lobito — with three scenarios and board-level implications for the twelve months ahea

A tier-one resource province wrapped around a tier-three administrative state: Porgera, Papua LNG, Wafi-Golpu and Panguna against clan-held tenure, Highland wars and the China–US auction for the Pacific. Three scenarios to 2027, with a ratification clock ticking toward 2030.

Between Moscow and Beijing, Mongolia's mineral wedge: copper replacing coal, fuel as a coercive instrument, and a selectorate that rotates premiers without renewing power.