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Aerial view of the Mogadishu coastline at dusk with port cranes, the old city minarets and foreign warships silhouetted offshore beyond the breakwater — cover image of the Somalia 2026 geopolitical risk assessment by CES Intelligence

Aerial view of the Mogadishu coastline at dusk with port cranes, the old city minarets and foreign warships silhouetted offshore beyond the breakwater — cover image of the Somalia 2026 geopolitical risk assessment by CES Intelligence

Somalia 2026: The Sovereignty that Isn't

6 hours ago

Strait of Malacca at dusk showing maritime chokepoint where quarter of global trade transits — Malaysia 2026 geopolitical risk assessment covers Malacca Strait vulnerability, semiconductor supply chain bifurcation, and Chinese coast guard grey-zone operations off Sarawak

Strait of Malacca at dusk showing maritime chokepoint where quarter of global trade transits — Malaysia 2026 geopolitical risk assessment covers Malacca Strait vulnerability, semiconductor supply chain bifurcation, and Chinese coast guard grey-zone operations off Sarawak

Malaysia 2026: The Narrowing Corridor — Malacca, Semiconductors, and the Impossible Neutrality

2 days ago

Armenia geopolitical risk assessment 2026: the Syunik corridor at dawn — the narrow chokepoint where TRIPP, Russian energy dependency, and Iranian grey-zone pressure converge on Armenia's southern border

Armenia geopolitical risk assessment 2026: the Syunik corridor at dawn — the narrow chokepoint where TRIPP, Russian energy dependency, and Iranian grey-zone pressure converge on Armenia's southern border

Armenia 2026: The Orphan Pivot

5 days ago

Jordan geopolitical risk assessment 2026 — Hashemite kingdom as accidental belligerent in US-Iran war, missile trajectories crossing airspace, US military bases in desert, regional conflict zones

Jordan geopolitical risk assessment 2026 — Hashemite kingdom as accidental belligerent in US-Iran war, missile trajectories crossing airspace, US military bases in desert, regional conflict zones

Jordan 2026: The Accidental Belligerent

6 days ago

Peru 2026 geopolitical risk assessment: Lima at dusk with Pacific port cranes and Andean mountains — Keiko Fujimori's presidency faces copper supercycle, Chancay megaport, security crisis, and US-China critical minerals competition.

Peru 2026 geopolitical risk assessment: Lima at dusk with Pacific port cranes and Andean mountains — Keiko Fujimori's presidency faces copper supercycle, Chancay megaport, security crisis, and US-China critical minerals competition.

Peru 2026: The Copper Dilemma

Aug 26

Musandam Peninsula coastline at dawn in Oman — dramatic limestone mountains illuminated by golden sunrise overlooking the Strait of Hormuz, with a solitary cargo ship visible in the distance, illustrating the collapse of maritime traffic from 130 vessels per day to fewer than ten during the 2026 US-Iran conflict.

Musandam Peninsula coastline at dawn in Oman — dramatic limestone mountains illuminated by golden sunrise overlooking the Strait of Hormuz, with a solitary cargo ship visible in the distance, illustrating the collapse of maritime traffic from 130 vessels per day to fewer than ten during the 2026 US-Iran conflict.

Oman 2026: The Indispensable Mediator

Aug 25

Tunis Avenue Habib Bourguiba during 2026 power blackout, Tunisia geopolitical risk assessment, protests in darkness, rolling electricity cuts under President Saied

Tunis Avenue Habib Bourguiba during 2026 power blackout, Tunisia geopolitical risk assessment, protests in darkness, rolling electricity cuts under President Saied

Tunisia 2026: The Hollow Republic

Aug 25

Strait of Hormuz at dusk with naval vessels and oil tankers, symbolising the critical maritime corridor central to the Mecca Defence Pact 2026 geopolitical risk assessment

Strait of Hormuz at dusk with naval vessels and oil tankers, symbolising the critical maritime corridor central to the Mecca Defence Pact 2026 geopolitical risk assessment

The Mecca Defence Pact 2026: Regional Security Reconfiguration or Strategic Theatre?

Aug 25

Aerial dusk view of Reichstag building in Berlin behind the Spree River, golden hour sunset with purple twilight — Germany 2026 geopolitical risk assessment: Zeitenwende, AfD firewall, deindustrialisation

Aerial dusk view of Reichstag building in Berlin behind the Spree River, golden hour sunset with purple twilight — Germany 2026 geopolitical risk assessment: Zeitenwende, AfD firewall, deindustrialisation

Germany 2026: The Atlas Strain

Aug 24

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Independent geopolitical and macroeconomic risk advisory. Our analysts follow rigorous intelligence standards, combining field expertise, original research, and continental strategic culture to deliver decision-grade analysis for senior leaders. Our team draws on operational experience across public institutions — defense, interior, diplomacy, intelligence, research — and the private sector — international corporates, legal and financial advisory, media.

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