All Reports

In January 2026, Lisbon committed €290 million to a lithium mine and a refinery. By November, the flagship project had survived eight court battles, an ECJ challenge and a village blockade. Portugal lithium is where Europe's sovereignty doctrine meets a mountain range that votes.

Democrats' sweep of both chambers converts two executive lifelines — Venezuela's oil contracts and Argentina's dollar backstop — into congressional exhibits. Caracas and Buenos Aires now hold positions priced for a protection that no longer exists. Formal document requests are likely within the first quarter of 2027.

Hydrocarbon revenues are arriving in Senegal exactly as the executive collapses into an institutional siege. The $2.2 billion IMF lifeline is now hostage to a budget standoff between President Faye and his estranged former prime minister. Calibrated three-scenario judgment for boards and operators with Dakar exposure.

A bank seizure on 3 November has consumed a presidency by 5 November. Pedro Alliana inherits a state in rupture — and ninety days of fragile governance.

China is locking its continental flank to free coercive capacity for the water and the summit chessboard — the pairing of Mekong charm and the Manila warning is the strategy, not a contradiction.

Border guards with drones, a six-member wage board racing a 1 December statutory deadline, and the US 20% tariff plus LDC graduation closing the preferential door: the Bangladesh garment strike lands on the exact window when its cost base loses shelter. What buyers' continuity calculus — and your sourcing exposure — really looks like through the EPB mid-November export print.

One amparo paused Mexico's flagship fuel-fraud prosecution on 29 October; the Ruffo suspension tests whether Mexico's two-speed justice bends for political notables at the worst moment for border-conditioned cooperation. The Daily watches the 23 November review and the 2027 Baja California spillover.

The AGOA suspension was not a trade ruling; it was the final round of a siege: RDF sanctioned in March, Kigali's defence ministry and Zigama frozen in October, Pretoria terminated on 2 November. Market access is now a weapons system. Contract shock begins before 1 January — our Assessment maps the Q4-to-Q1 exposure across mining and agro-export chains.

The alliance did not slow down; it split: the Trilateral Arctic Pacific Partnership was signed in Atlanta on 30 October, three days before Seoul and Washington exposed an open divergence over China in the Yellow Sea. Our October South Korea Assessment mapped the fault line; the Signal runs the coupling through Q4 2026 — December defense talks, Beijing's silence, Pyongyang's channel.

Updated 29 Oct 2026 — Morocco was not hedged in 2026; it was priced: the migration lever discharged in July, the sovereignty file put on a 2027 clock, the hedge itself now the collateral. Our August consolidation scenario has bent, not broken; the updated assessment runs three scenarios for Q4 2026 through the 2027 UN transition.

In Santo Domingo, nineteen governments have just turned an anti-cartel pact into standing military architecture with no exit date. Beneath it, « terrorist » labels are quietly rewriting contracts and insurance across the hemisphere.

On 27 September, 70.15 per cent of Swiss voters rejected strict neutrality. The question is deferred, not settled: sanctions convergence is now the operating condition of Swiss foreign policy. This CES Intelligence assessment maps three scenarios through 2028 — managed erosion, alignment snap, fortress rupture — with dates, triggers and portfolio implications.

A week before November 3, the White House conditions its acceptance of the results while federal litigation already targets 20,000 California ballots and a 'rigged' verdict lands on Brasília. What that coupling prices for boards — and where it breaks — turns on a handful of observable margins.

Hours after Brazil's Supreme Court cancelled his passports, Washington issued visas: the defeated candidate lands in Florida, and Brazilian judicial sovereignty collides with US executive politics at the opening of Lula's fourth term.

Beijing's condolence message for Yasuo Fukuda read as an elegy; it functions as a price list. Behind the diplomatic etiquette, yttrium flows to Japan have collapsed 92% year-on-year — and Tokyo's room to answer is narrower than its coalition politics suggests.

The Wellington waterfront, October 2026 — the capital of a country that sends roughly a quarter of its exports to a single market while its own security service names that market's government as its dominant intelligence threat. This assessment maps the convergence of espionage exposure, alliance discipline, and export concentration that defines New Zealand's strategic dilemma.

Lula takes a fourth term on 51.79% of valid votes, but the refusal to concede, a 303-seat opposition Congress and a repriced currency relocate the dispute beyond the ballot box.

Bogotá's record seizures are the showcase; the Estatuto Antiterrorista is the machinery. Washington's decertification pressure is producing something more durable than a drug-war scoreboard — a designation and asset-freeze regime running on administrative decision. CES Intelligence maps where the cost actually lands: ports, counterparties, insurers.

Tbilisi's Constitutional Court hears a case to outlaw five opposition parties carrying 37.79% of the 2024 vote. The campaign peaks 28 November — the open variable.

Chinese firms control more than 80 percent of Zimbabwe's lithium and virtually all of it ships to one destination. The February 2026 export freeze tripled revenue — and institutionalised the dependency it claimed to end. Three scenarios to January 2027 and beyond, with compliance calendars, fiscal thresholds and the succession clock priced in.