Society

Haiti's Provisional Electoral Council suspended presidential and legislative ballots scheduled for December 2026. With only 769,000 voters registered and the UN-backed Gang Suppression Force at one-third deployment, armed groups now exercise de facto governance over key corridors. This shift carries material implications for Caribbean migration routes, freight insurance, and regional security architecture.

El Salvador 2026 is not a safe country. It is a country where violence has been administratively suspended — and the bill arrives in 2027. Full risk assessment.

Incident counts are at thirty-year lows, yet the kidnapping economy is intact, the security is rented, and the gulf's true integration runs below the waterline. A theatre-level assessment of West African energy's most consequential corridor.

Between the sealed Darién Gap and Mexico's southern border, Guatemala has become the hemisphere's most consequential unguarded corridor. This assessment maps the cartel succession auction triggered by El Mencho's death, the deportation arithmetic, the 21%-of-GDP remittance economy, and the Beijing–Taipei recognition contest ahead of the 2028 transition.

Haiti represents the Western Hemisphere's most advanced case of state collapse. Armed coalitions control 70–90% of Port-au-Prince. An unelected prime minister governs without parliament. A private mercenary drone programme has killed over 1,200 people without accountability. The US has terminated TPS for 350,000 Haitians. The December 2026 election is not feasible. Three scenarios through Q3 2027.

The 2026 Ecuador geopolitical risk landscape combines a narco-insurgency, a dollarization trap, and strategic hedging between Washington and Beijing. This CES Intelligence assessment delivers calibrated probability scenarios and sector-specific implications for organisations with exposure to Latin American supply chains.