All Reports

Updated 9 Sep 2026 — The Gulf states were not spared the 2026 war; they became its terrain: Jazan struck again in September, the corridor talks priced in percentages, the Mecca defence pact signed against Washington's wishes. Our August repair-window thesis has not survived; the updated assessment runs three scenarios through Q1 2027.

Updated 7 Sep 2026 — Israel was not defeated in 2026; it won every war and lost the region they were fought for: 170 days on each reservist, both blocs short of 61 seats, and a Mecca Pact building an exclusion wall it never has to fire. Our August managed-decay baseline is already materialising; the updated assessment runs three scenarios through the 2028 transition.

Between the sealed Darién Gap and Mexico's southern border, Guatemala has become the hemisphere's most consequential unguarded corridor. This assessment maps the cartel succession auction triggered by El Mencho's death, the deportation arithmetic, the 21%-of-GDP remittance economy, and the Beijing–Taipei recognition contest ahead of the 2028 transition.

Sat on Itaipú and Yacyretá, the world's largest per-capita electricity exporter enters its Annex C renegotiation window as AI demand re-values every hydraulic megawatt — while Beijing bids for the hemisphere's last Taiwanese embassy and Ciudad del Este keeps the informal economy running. Three calibrated scenarios for boards exposed to Southern Cone energy, agro-logistics, and data infrastructure.

Bolivia sits on the largest single-basin lithium deposit on Earth, yet produces under one per cent of global supply. This Bolivia 2026 geopolitical risk assessment examines the accidental presidency, a 30% devaluation, terminal gas decline, and the unratified Chinese and Russian lithium contracts — as Washington's Shield of the Americas realigns La Paz faster than $6 billion owed to Beijing can unwind. Three scenarios, calibrated probabilities.

Two years after the August 2023 coup, Brice Oligui Nguema converted a two-year transition into a seven-year mandate with 90-plus percent of the vote — while public debt runs toward 94 percent of GDP and the oil that financed five decades of dynastic rule declines toward 200,000 barrels a day. Three calibrated scenarios and the tactical implications for sovereign-credit, extractive and banking exposure through 2029.

The binding constraint on AI in 2026 is no longer chips — it is electricity. This CES Intelligence assessment maps the megawatt wall: capacity auction repricing, turbine and transformer lead times, the nuclear race for HALEU fuel, Gulf compute migration and the political backlash that now sets the pace of AI expansion. Three scenarios, dated triggers, board-level implications.

China's rare earth export controls expire on 10 November 2026. Copper is above $13,000 a tonne. Indonesia and the DRC are turning quotas into leverage. Our Critical Minerals 2026 assessment maps the three scenarios, their triggers, and what boards must do before the gates close.

Fiscal buffers exhausted. Battlefield losses crossing the recruitment threshold. A deficit already double its plan by April. Russia 2026 is not collapsing — it is oscillating. Three scenarios, explicit triggers, and what each transmits to executive exposure.

Angola 2026 is not an oil state in crisis. It is an oil state in arithmetic. Production has slipped below one million barrels per day, the ruling party must name a successor it cannot choose, and the street has already vetoed one reform. Three scenarios, explicit triggers and board-level implications — the full assessment.

Belarus 2026 is a forward garrison in terminal conversion: Oreshnik on NATO's doorstep, an absorption timetable already drafted through 2029, a succession architecture unresolved by design, and a demographic base running out of garrisoners. Three scenarios — calibrated absorption, terminal handover, forward activation — with implications for logistics, energy, potash and defence-sector exposure.

How a Gen Z blackout revolution, a frozen IMF tranche and Russia's Africa Corps turned the world's fourth-largest island into the Indian Ocean's next systemic risk — with three scenarios to July 2027.

Zambia has restructured its debt, won an election, and pledged to triple copper output by 2031. But every stabilization gain routes through a single commodity, pulled from the ground by a power system that depends on rain, exported through corridors that two rival powers are building in opposite directions. The wager is that the copper arrives before the water runs out.

With the last US carrier withdrawn from the Western Pacific and China's 12,000-ton coast guard cutter holding station 50 nautical miles off Sarawak, the Strait of Malacca — through which a quarter of global trade flows — is becoming the Indo-Pacific's most consequential pressure point. This Malaysia 2026 geopolitical risk assessment maps the chokepoint cascade, semiconductor bifurcation, rare earth competition, and the fiscal contraction constraining sovereignty assertion.

Qatar in 2026 is a system whose three foundational pillars — LNG wealth, mediation access, and US military protection — are being damaged simultaneously by a conflict it did not start and cannot control. The overstretch is not Qatar's. The overreach belongs to Washington and Tehran. But the consequences are Qatar's. The question is whether the model that made this microstate more powerful than its size justified survives in recognisable form.

China has eclipsed Russia as Central Asia's dominant economic partner. The U.S. is pushing for critical minerals. ISIS-K is intensifying. Three scenarios, calibrated probabilities, and sector-specific implications for executives.

This 2026 geopolitical risk assessment finds that the United Kingdom is a state whose strategic ambition is accelerating past its industrial, fiscal, and political capacity to sustain it. The crown is not hollow yet—but the metal is thinning.

Following Péter Magyar's April 2026 supermajority victory ending sixteen years of Orbán rule, this Hungary geopolitical risk assessment 2026 maps the structural constraints on democratic transition: judicial capture, media monopoly, Druzhba oil dependency, and the Paks II Russian nuclear entanglement. Three scenarios through 2028 with calibrated probabilities.

Yerevan is executing the most pronounced geopolitical realignment in the South Caucasus in three decades — freezing CSTO cooperation, pursuing EU membership, and partnering with the United States — while remaining dependent on Russia for energy and exposed to Iranian grey-zone pressure over the Syunik corridor. Three calibrated scenarios through 2028.

The United States is applying trade coercion against NATO allies to compel cession of sovereign Danish territory. As Trump's 2029 timeline compresses, Denmark deploys conscripts for the first time in history, NATO launches Arctic Sentry, and a Texas oil firm moves 300 containers of drilling equipment onto Arctic soil without permits. Three scenarios map the probable pathways through 2027-2028.