All Reports

Democrats' sweep of both chambers converts two executive lifelines — Venezuela's oil contracts and Argentina's dollar backstop — into congressional exhibits. Caracas and Buenos Aires now hold positions priced for a protection that no longer exists. Formal document requests are likely within the first quarter of 2027.

Hydrocarbon revenues are arriving in Senegal exactly as the executive collapses into an institutional siege. The $2.2 billion IMF lifeline is now hostage to a budget standoff between President Faye and his estranged former prime minister. Calibrated three-scenario judgment for boards and operators with Dakar exposure.

The US midterm rebuke of data-center economics has become the first coordinated stress test of the sovereign bets that Korea, Taiwan and Japan placed on the AI build-out.

Brent has broken below $100 on a ballot, a proposal and a price break — none of them signed. The gap between what markets discount and what anyone has committed to is now the exposure itself.

The US will stop paying roughly $4 billion in annual military aid to Israel by 31 December, by presidential declaration nobody in Jerusalem has ratified. Tehran has already invited Beijing into the chair Washington is vacating. CES Intelligence maps the ninety-day window.

Bogotá's Operation Esparta puts 1,200 troops on the Colombia–Venezuela border. Our 90-day read: corridor costs reprice first, Caracas' silence becomes doctrine, and Arauca's fixed assets absorb the residual violence.

Moscow bombed Ukraine's grid harder than at any point this year — seven days before sitting down at the trilateral table. The destruction is the opening position, not the backdrop.

Fourteen island states, five rival patrons, fifty-six security arrangements — and a Chinese missile test hours after Australia's flagship Fiji treaty. This Pacific Islands 2026 geopolitical risk assessment maps the region's new marketplace of strategic access: the police frontier Beijing exploits, the lock-out treaties Canberra is buying, and a US$6 billion fuel bill that outranks them both. Three scenarios, calibrated probabilities, and board-level exposure baselines for exe

Two receptions and one disclosed negotiation: American pressure acquires standing legal architecture. The question is no longer whether the transition proceeds, but under whose legal signature the country is governed.

Indian commandos freed the hijacked dhow Azini on 3 November — but the Somali piracy resurgence behind it has crossed its 2013 threshold, and the Gulf of Aden corridor is being repriced as a double-threat risk surface. 5-minute read for boards.

US Midterms 2026 delivered a Democratic Congress, powered by $4.15-a-gallon gasoline. CES Intelligence unpacks what a lame-duck Trump means for the Iran war, Ukraine funding and the FY2027 defence budget — in four minutes.

One amparo paused Mexico's flagship fuel-fraud prosecution on 29 October; the Ruffo suspension tests whether Mexico's two-speed justice bends for political notables at the worst moment for border-conditioned cooperation. The Daily watches the 23 November review and the 2027 Baja California spillover.

Lula's fourth term was not won on the 25th; it was priced on the 26th: the Bovespa's worst session since the pandemic and the real's worst since 2007 converted an electoral shock into a durable sovereign risk premium. The rout ends; the financing bill does not. Three signals will tell the two apart by January.

Tehran's armed forces are on ordered standby, Washington's decision deadline is electoral, and Jerusalem cannot form a government to fight one. Whether the war resumes or freezes is now a question of two vote counts, not two armies.

The US has cleared $2.1 billion for 500 PAC-3 interceptors — financed by allies, delivered on another decade's clock. Moscow's campaign against the grid runs on this winter's.

Updated 1 Nov 2026 — The strait was seized in September and put back into contention in October: a Saudi-backed counter-offensive is fighting to retake the coast a non-state levy regime now taxes rather than closes. Our contested-levy scenario holds; the updated assessment runs three recalibrated scenarios from Q4 2026 through the H1 2027 corridor cycle.

Updated 31 Oct 2026 — Romania was not attacked in 2026; it was eroded: struck in Galați in May, drained of its nuclear capacity by drought in August, governed since October by a minority whose mandate has no majority. Our August downside scenario has come true; the updated assessment runs three scenarios through the 2027 coalition window.

Updated 30 Oct 2026 — Canada was not broken in 2026; it was billed: tariffed in August, rallied in October, and hiked into its own inflation. Our August stress-test scenarios have partially come true; the updated assessment runs three scenarios for the post-midterm window through Q4 2027.

Athens has taken the Turkish-Libyan memorandum to the Security Council — with Chevron's seismic fleet and a €3 billion air-defense shield waiting in the same corridor. The dispute is no longer cartographic; it is scheduled, insured and procured.

The European Commission has ruled out any postwar return of Russian gas through the Baltic pipeline system — in law, not just diplomacy. Whether that statute survives a €100/MWh winter is now the operative question.