All Reports

The US will stop paying roughly $4 billion in annual military aid to Israel by 31 December, by presidential declaration nobody in Jerusalem has ratified. Tehran has already invited Beijing into the chair Washington is vacating. CES Intelligence maps the ninety-day window.

China is locking its continental flank to free coercive capacity for the water and the summit chessboard — the pairing of Mekong charm and the Manila warning is the strategy, not a contradiction.

The scale of the garrison, not the wiretap, is the indicator — Indonesia's coercive apparatus is being reorganised around a dispute inside the state itself, and markets are repricing it faster than the investigation can conclude.

New Delhi just paid $5.7 billion for eight next-generation corvettes — its first competitively bid, Navy-designed warship class. The signal is not the hulls but the doctrine: a densified coastal-denial layer for the western Indian Ocean, built without import dependency. The risk has moved from intent to execution.

Ratified in Nuuk, contested in Copenhagen: the 22 September Greenland agreement gives Washington permanent bases while Moscow's sabotage planning targets the Danish arsenal. This assessment maps the kingdom's four coupled fault lines — the American lease, the Baltic chokepoint, the rearmament delivery gap and a two-firm economy — through three scenarios and board-level implications ahead of the 19 November Folketing vote.

Bogotá's Operation Esparta puts 1,200 troops on the Colombia–Venezuela border. Our 90-day read: corridor costs reprice first, Caracas' silence becomes doctrine, and Arauca's fixed assets absorb the residual violence.

Moscow bombed Ukraine's grid harder than at any point this year — seven days before sitting down at the trilateral table. The destruction is the opening position, not the backdrop.

Fourteen island states, five rival patrons, fifty-six security arrangements — and a Chinese missile test hours after Australia's flagship Fiji treaty. This Pacific Islands 2026 geopolitical risk assessment maps the region's new marketplace of strategic access: the police frontier Beijing exploits, the lock-out treaties Canberra is buying, and a US$6 billion fuel bill that outranks them both. Three scenarios, calibrated probabilities, and board-level exposure baselines for exe

Two receptions and one disclosed negotiation: American pressure acquires standing legal architecture. The question is no longer whether the transition proceeds, but under whose legal signature the country is governed.

Border guards with drones, a six-member wage board racing a 1 December statutory deadline, and the US 20% tariff plus LDC graduation closing the preferential door: the Bangladesh garment strike lands on the exact window when its cost base loses shelter. What buyers' continuity calculus — and your sourcing exposure — really looks like through the EPB mid-November export print.

US Midterms 2026 delivered a Democratic Congress, powered by $4.15-a-gallon gasoline. CES Intelligence unpacks what a lame-duck Trump means for the Iran war, Ukraine funding and the FY2027 defence budget — in four minutes.

Forty-nine PLA sorties in 24 hours — a 2026 record — and coast guard harassment of shipping east of Taiwan, four weeks before the island votes. Beijing has synchronized its grey-zone machinery with the electoral calendar, and the coercion is priced for wear.

The FBI attribution of the $6.3 billion Binance theft confirms crypto-infrastructure compromise as a core revenue instrument of the DPRK state: 44% of the haul is frozen, $3.2 billion is still moving, and the freeze race now defines the 90-day horizon.

One amparo paused Mexico's flagship fuel-fraud prosecution on 29 October; the Ruffo suspension tests whether Mexico's two-speed justice bends for political notables at the worst moment for border-conditioned cooperation. The Daily watches the 23 November review and the 2027 Baja California spillover.

Lula's fourth term was not won on the 25th; it was priced on the 26th: the Bovespa's worst session since the pandemic and the real's worst since 2007 converted an electoral shock into a durable sovereign risk premium. The rout ends; the financing bill does not. Three signals will tell the two apart by January.

The AGOA suspension was not a trade ruling; it was the final round of a siege: RDF sanctioned in March, Kigali's defence ministry and Zigama frozen in October, Pretoria terminated on 2 November. Market access is now a weapons system. Contract shock begins before 1 January — our Assessment maps the Q4-to-Q1 exposure across mining and agro-export chains.

The alliance did not slow down; it split: the Trilateral Arctic Pacific Partnership was signed in Atlanta on 30 October, three days before Seoul and Washington exposed an open divergence over China in the Yellow Sea. Our October South Korea Assessment mapped the fault line; the Signal runs the coupling through Q4 2026 — December defense talks, Beijing's silence, Pyongyang's channel.

Poland's top court was not reformed; it was seized by police ordinance, with the president landing at midnight to demand it back. The standoff now runs unchecked toward the 2027 election, and the zloty, the central bank and NATO's eastern flank inherit the bill.

Updated 2 Nov 2026 — Somalia enters 2027 with its sovereignty allocated rather than defended: its north recognised by Israel, its capital guaranteed by Turkey, its waters policed by a Saudi-led coalition. Our September fragmented-continuity baseline holds; the updated assessment runs three scenarios from the 31 December AUSSOM cliff through the 2027 transition.

The cross vetoes of 30 October liquidated the only mission recording who fires first along the berm. The question for the next ninety days is whether attrition stays anonymous — or finds its chokepoint at Guerguerat.