All Reports

In 2026, Jordan has been transformed from logistics hub to target theatre. Our assessment maps three pathways through 2027 with calibrated probabilities and sector implications.

Eight opposition parties unite against Ruto. The IMF remains absent over undisclosed debt. China converts Kenyan loans into yuan. Al-Shabaab demonstrates that preventive strikes provoke retaliation. Ten months after Raila Odinga's death, Kenya approaches 2027 without a mediating figure — and on a fiscal cliff edge.

Haiti represents the Western Hemisphere's most advanced case of state collapse. Armed coalitions control 70–90% of Port-au-Prince. An unelected prime minister governs without parliament. A private mercenary drone programme has killed over 1,200 people without accountability. The US has terminated TPS for 350,000 Haitians. The December 2026 election is not feasible. Three scenarios through Q3 2027.

Keiko Fujimori assumed office on 28 July 2026 as Peru's ninth president in a decade. Her inheritance: a copper supercycle that fills the treasury, a Chinese megaport that erodes sovereign oversight, the worst security crisis in living memory, and an authoritarian legacy that inflames every solution it proposes. CES Intelligence assesses three scenarios through 2027.

THE MUSANDAM PENINSULA AT DAWN — The geographic fulcrum of the Strait of Hormuz, where commercial traffic has collapsed from approximately 130 vessels per day to fewer than ten by August 2026. The sultanate stands between Iran, which threatens to close the waterway, and the United States, which has threatened to bomb Omani territory if mediation efforts interfere with Washington's objectives.

Tunisia 2026: Five years after Saied's constitutional coup, the Arab Spring's birthplace faces energy collapse, silent deindustrialisation, and institutional hollowing — sustained by dependencies on Algerian gas, European migration funding, and US security cooperation it cannot control.

The world's largest copper producer enters its most volatile period since the return to democracy. José Antonio Kast's emergency government collides with Codelco's structural decline, a water-permitting trap, Indigenous territorial conflict, and intensifying US-China competition over the lithium-copper triangle — while Argentina's RIGI regime diverts the investment Santiago repels.

Berlin is rearming at unprecedented speed while its industrial base relocates, its political consensus fractures, and Russian hybrid operations escalate from espionage to kinetic sabotage. The FCAS termination, the AfD's march toward state governance, and the death of the German economic model converge on a single reality: Europe's anchor is accumulating commitments it cannot sustain.

The Western Balkans is where US disengagement, Russian-China strategic insertion, and the Dayton-KFOR framework dismantling converge. This 19-minute analysis maps three scenarios through 2027-2028, including the Mitrovica trigger (30% probability) and Dayton's collapse (15%). For executives with exposure to European supply chains, energy assets, or NATO planning.

The republic sits at the intersection of EU accession momentum, Russian hybrid warfare escalation, and the most significant degradation of the Transnistria separatist project since 1992. This analysis examines the narrow window for reintegration versus disruption.

The 2026 Ecuador geopolitical risk landscape combines a narco-insurgency, a dollarization trap, and strategic hedging between Washington and Beijing. This CES Intelligence assessment delivers calibrated probability scenarios and sector-specific implications for organisations with exposure to Latin American supply chains.

Poland is executing Europe's largest defence build-up since the Cold War — 4.8% GDP spending, an anti-drone wall, Eastern Shield fortifications, and $50B in US weapons. Yet a political crisis between President Nawrocki and Prime Minister Tusk, Trump's volatile troop decisions, and active Russian grey-zone probing expose institutional fractures beneath the steel and concrete. Three scenarios, sectoral implications, and the core analytical judgment your board needs.

Myanmar's territorial fragmentation has made it the world's most consequential critical-mineral dependency held by no sovereign. Roughly half the global heavy rare-earth supply is extracted under ethnic armed group control along the China border, while Beijing's $7.3bn Kyaukpyu deep-sea port — built to bypass the Strait of Malacca — now sits in Arakan Army territory. This assessment maps the supply-chain, infrastructure, and strategic implications through three calibrated sce

North Korea's strongest strategic position since 1993: a self-financing weapons economy, a militarised Russia corridor weeks from completion, and a US deterrent degrading in real time. Three scenarios, calibrated probabilities, and the board-level implications.

From $77B banking gap to South China Sea escalation — CES Intelligence maps Vietnam 2026 geopolitical risk across three scenarios for executive decision-making.

A comprehensive analysis of Mozambique's 2026 geopolitical risk landscape: the $60 billion LNG pipeline faces existential threat as Rwanda's security deployment fractures amid US sanctions, the EU withdraws funding, and ISIS-affiliated insurgents adapt to the vacuum.

Five years after the Taliban's return, Afghanistan is a functioning authoritarian state whose stability is an illusion. Pakistan has declared "open war," ISKP operates as a jihadist sanctuary hosting 21 groups and 23,000 fighters, China's $2.8B Mes Aynak gamble runs under extremist veto, and the Kandahar-Kabul split is widening. CES Intelligence assesses three scenarios through Q3 2027 — and the implications for boards exposed to South Asian logistics, critical minerals, and

Azerbaijan has become the indispensable transit state connecting Caspian energy to Europe — but every increment of strategic value multiplies the incentive for adversaries to disrupt it. Following Iran's March 2026 drone strike on Nakhchivan, this assessment examines the Exposure Multiplier dynamic, the TRIPP corridor gamble, the Israel oil-for-arms nexus, and the petro-state inversion as declining output forces a race between transit revenue and hydrocarbon depletion.

Syria in 2026 is more open to international capital than it has been in over a decade — and more fragile than at any point since the civil war's most intense phase. Sanctions lifted, institutions absent, sectarian violence unresolved, and $216 billion in reconstruction needs flowing into a governance vacuum. Three scenarios through Q3 2027.

Kazakhstan's multi-alignment strategy faces simultaneous pressure from CPC pipeline dependency, Chinese extractive dominance, US secondary sanctions, and Russia's Taliban security partnership.