All Reports

The United States is applying trade coercion against NATO allies to compel cession of sovereign Danish territory. As Trump's 2029 timeline compresses, Denmark deploys conscripts for the first time in history, NATO launches Arctic Sentry, and a Texas oil firm moves 300 containers of drilling equipment onto Arctic soil without permits. Three scenarios map the probable pathways through 2027-2028.

Eight opposition parties unite against Ruto. The IMF remains absent over undisclosed debt. China converts Kenyan loans into yuan. Al-Shabaab demonstrates that preventive strikes provoke retaliation. Ten months after Raila Odinga's death, Kenya approaches 2027 without a mediating figure — and on a fiscal cliff edge.

The Western Balkans is where US disengagement, Russian-China strategic insertion, and the Dayton-KFOR framework dismantling converge. This 19-minute analysis maps three scenarios through 2027-2028, including the Mitrovica trigger (30% probability) and Dayton's collapse (15%). For executives with exposure to European supply chains, energy assets, or NATO planning.

A comprehensive analysis of Mozambique's 2026 geopolitical risk landscape: the $60 billion LNG pipeline faces existential threat as Rwanda's security deployment fractures amid US sanctions, the EU withdraws funding, and ISIS-affiliated insurgents adapt to the vacuum.

Azerbaijan has become the indispensable transit state connecting Caspian energy to Europe — but every increment of strategic value multiplies the incentive for adversaries to disrupt it. Following Iran's March 2026 drone strike on Nakhchivan, this assessment examines the Exposure Multiplier dynamic, the TRIPP corridor gamble, the Israel oil-for-arms nexus, and the petro-state inversion as declining output forces a race between transit revenue and hydrocarbon depletion.

Georgia's value as the sole overland gateway for the Middle Corridor has never been higher—precisely as its government's alignment with Western interests has never been weaker. With 8,500 Russian troops 25 miles from Tbilisi, EU candidacy frozen, and the Armenian TRIPP corridor threatening to bypass Georgian territory entirely, this CES Intelligence assessment maps three divergent pathways through 2027 for boards exposed to Caspian energy and South Caucasus transit.

CES Intelligence analyzes South Korea's 2026 geopolitical risks: North Korean nuclear maturation, US-China semiconductor tensions, KOSPI volatility, and strategic exposure across defense, technology, and energy sectors.

CES Intelligence assesses Algeria's 2026 geopolitical risk profile: political consolidation without legitimacy, hydrocarbon dependency at 93% of exports, militarised rivalry with Morocco, Sahel frontier deterioration, and a plural alignment strategy approaching its elasticity limit. Three scenarios through 2027 with implications for energy, defence, finance, and logistics sectors.

How GPS spoofing, mega-constellation fragility, and the militarisation of low Earth orbit are exposing a $372 billion invisible dependency most boards haven't mapped — and why satellite infrastructure risk is now a board-level liability. Scenario analysis through 2027.

Approximately $10 trillion in daily financial transactions flow through undersea fiber-optic cables. They are being deliberately severed — by shadow fleets operating below the threshold of armed conflict, exploiting legal gaps boards haven't mapped. The framing error: treating undersea cable security risk as a telecom problem when it is a board-level liability.

Europe wants to triple its nuclear capacity by 2035. But the uranium will come from mines it doesn't control, converted in facilities it can't replicate, and enriched by a competitor it's trying to decouple from. The framing error boards are making: treating nuclear fuel as a procurement line item when it is a supply-chain architecture with a binding constraint two layers below.

Project Vault, the EU CRMA, and the 2026 Critical Minerals Ministerial: three Western responses to a single mineral vulnerability. None can deliver alone.