All Reports

Zambia has restructured its debt, won an election, and pledged to triple copper output by 2031. But every stabilization gain routes through a single commodity, pulled from the ground by a power system that depends on rain, exported through corridors that two rival powers are building in opposite directions. The wager is that the copper arrives before the water runs out.

With the last US carrier withdrawn from the Western Pacific and China's 12,000-ton coast guard cutter holding station 50 nautical miles off Sarawak, the Strait of Malacca — through which a quarter of global trade flows — is becoming the Indo-Pacific's most consequential pressure point. This Malaysia 2026 geopolitical risk assessment maps the chokepoint cascade, semiconductor bifurcation, rare earth competition, and the fiscal contraction constraining sovereignty assertion.

Qatar in 2026 is a system whose three foundational pillars — LNG wealth, mediation access, and US military protection — are being damaged simultaneously by a conflict it did not start and cannot control. The overstretch is not Qatar's. The overreach belongs to Washington and Tehran. But the consequences are Qatar's. The question is whether the model that made this microstate more powerful than its size justified survives in recognisable form.

China has eclipsed Russia as Central Asia's dominant economic partner. The U.S. is pushing for critical minerals. ISIS-K is intensifying. Three scenarios, calibrated probabilities, and sector-specific implications for executives.

This 2026 geopolitical risk assessment finds that the United Kingdom is a state whose strategic ambition is accelerating past its industrial, fiscal, and political capacity to sustain it. The crown is not hollow yet—but the metal is thinning.

Following Péter Magyar's April 2026 supermajority victory ending sixteen years of Orbán rule, this Hungary geopolitical risk assessment 2026 maps the structural constraints on democratic transition: judicial capture, media monopoly, Druzhba oil dependency, and the Paks II Russian nuclear entanglement. Three scenarios through 2028 with calibrated probabilities.

Yerevan is executing the most pronounced geopolitical realignment in the South Caucasus in three decades — freezing CSTO cooperation, pursuing EU membership, and partnering with the United States — while remaining dependent on Russia for energy and exposed to Iranian grey-zone pressure over the Syunik corridor. Three calibrated scenarios through 2028.

The United States is applying trade coercion against NATO allies to compel cession of sovereign Danish territory. As Trump's 2029 timeline compresses, Denmark deploys conscripts for the first time in history, NATO launches Arctic Sentry, and a Texas oil firm moves 300 containers of drilling equipment onto Arctic soil without permits. Three scenarios map the probable pathways through 2027-2028.

In 2026, Jordan has been transformed from logistics hub to target theatre. Our assessment maps three pathways through 2027 with calibrated probabilities and sector implications.

Eight opposition parties unite against Ruto. The IMF remains absent over undisclosed debt. China converts Kenyan loans into yuan. Al-Shabaab demonstrates that preventive strikes provoke retaliation. Ten months after Raila Odinga's death, Kenya approaches 2027 without a mediating figure — and on a fiscal cliff edge.

Haiti represents the Western Hemisphere's most advanced case of state collapse. Armed coalitions control 70–90% of Port-au-Prince. An unelected prime minister governs without parliament. A private mercenary drone programme has killed over 1,200 people without accountability. The US has terminated TPS for 350,000 Haitians. The December 2026 election is not feasible. Three scenarios through Q3 2027.

Keiko Fujimori assumed office on 28 July 2026 as Peru's ninth president in a decade. Her inheritance: a copper supercycle that fills the treasury, a Chinese megaport that erodes sovereign oversight, the worst security crisis in living memory, and an authoritarian legacy that inflames every solution it proposes. CES Intelligence assesses three scenarios through 2027.

THE MUSANDAM PENINSULA AT DAWN — The geographic fulcrum of the Strait of Hormuz, where commercial traffic has collapsed from approximately 130 vessels per day to fewer than ten by August 2026. The sultanate stands between Iran, which threatens to close the waterway, and the United States, which has threatened to bomb Omani territory if mediation efforts interfere with Washington's objectives.

Tunisia 2026: Five years after Saied's constitutional coup, the Arab Spring's birthplace faces energy collapse, silent deindustrialisation, and institutional hollowing — sustained by dependencies on Algerian gas, European migration funding, and US security cooperation it cannot control.

The world's largest copper producer enters its most volatile period since the return to democracy. José Antonio Kast's emergency government collides with Codelco's structural decline, a water-permitting trap, Indigenous territorial conflict, and intensifying US-China competition over the lithium-copper triangle — while Argentina's RIGI regime diverts the investment Santiago repels.

Berlin is rearming at unprecedented speed while its industrial base relocates, its political consensus fractures, and Russian hybrid operations escalate from espionage to kinetic sabotage. The FCAS termination, the AfD's march toward state governance, and the death of the German economic model converge on a single reality: Europe's anchor is accumulating commitments it cannot sustain.

The Western Balkans is where US disengagement, Russian-China strategic insertion, and the Dayton-KFOR framework dismantling converge. This 19-minute analysis maps three scenarios through 2027-2028, including the Mitrovica trigger (30% probability) and Dayton's collapse (15%). For executives with exposure to European supply chains, energy assets, or NATO planning.

The republic sits at the intersection of EU accession momentum, Russian hybrid warfare escalation, and the most significant degradation of the Transnistria separatist project since 1992. This analysis examines the narrow window for reintegration versus disruption.

The 2026 Ecuador geopolitical risk landscape combines a narco-insurgency, a dollarization trap, and strategic hedging between Washington and Beijing. This CES Intelligence assessment delivers calibrated probability scenarios and sector-specific implications for organisations with exposure to Latin American supply chains.

Poland is executing Europe's largest defence build-up since the Cold War — 4.8% GDP spending, an anti-drone wall, Eastern Shield fortifications, and $50B in US weapons. Yet a political crisis between President Nawrocki and Prime Minister Tusk, Trump's volatile troop decisions, and active Russian grey-zone probing expose institutional fractures beneath the steel and concrete. Three scenarios, sectoral implications, and the core analytical judgment your board needs.