All Reports

Myanmar's territorial fragmentation has made it the world's most consequential critical-mineral dependency held by no sovereign. Roughly half the global heavy rare-earth supply is extracted under ethnic armed group control along the China border, while Beijing's $7.3bn Kyaukpyu deep-sea port — built to bypass the Strait of Malacca — now sits in Arakan Army territory. This assessment maps the supply-chain, infrastructure, and strategic implications through three calibrated sce

North Korea's strongest strategic position since 1993: a self-financing weapons economy, a militarised Russia corridor weeks from completion, and a US deterrent degrading in real time. Three scenarios, calibrated probabilities, and the board-level implications.

From $77B banking gap to South China Sea escalation — CES Intelligence maps Vietnam 2026 geopolitical risk across three scenarios for executive decision-making.

A comprehensive analysis of Mozambique's 2026 geopolitical risk landscape: the $60 billion LNG pipeline faces existential threat as Rwanda's security deployment fractures amid US sanctions, the EU withdraws funding, and ISIS-affiliated insurgents adapt to the vacuum.

Five years after the Taliban's return, Afghanistan is a functioning authoritarian state whose stability is an illusion. Pakistan has declared "open war," ISKP operates as a jihadist sanctuary hosting 21 groups and 23,000 fighters, China's $2.8B Mes Aynak gamble runs under extremist veto, and the Kandahar-Kabul split is widening. CES Intelligence assesses three scenarios through Q3 2027 — and the implications for boards exposed to South Asian logistics, critical minerals, and

Azerbaijan has become the indispensable transit state connecting Caspian energy to Europe — but every increment of strategic value multiplies the incentive for adversaries to disrupt it. Following Iran's March 2026 drone strike on Nakhchivan, this assessment examines the Exposure Multiplier dynamic, the TRIPP corridor gamble, the Israel oil-for-arms nexus, and the petro-state inversion as declining output forces a race between transit revenue and hydrocarbon depletion.

Syria in 2026 is more open to international capital than it has been in over a decade — and more fragile than at any point since the civil war's most intense phase. Sanctions lifted, institutions absent, sectarian violence unresolved, and $216 billion in reconstruction needs flowing into a governance vacuum. Three scenarios through Q3 2027.

Kazakhstan's multi-alignment strategy faces simultaneous pressure from CPC pipeline dependency, Chinese extractive dominance, US secondary sanctions, and Russia's Taliban security partnership.

Libya 2026: Record oil production meets institutional collapse. The Dbeibeh-Haftar duopoly has formalised under US auspices while the Africa Corps expands across Fezzan. Three calibrated scenarios for Q3 2027 with implications for investors, security managers, and migration policy. CES Intelligence geopolitical risk assessment.

The first free election in two decades produced a government. It did not produce the institutions that government needs to succeed. Bangladesh's democratic gamble unfolds amid an Islamist opposition surge, a fractured Indian relationship, China's $9 billion Bay of Bengal embedding, and a banking sector with the world's second-highest NPL ratio. Three scenarios for boards and executive teams.

Georgia's value as the sole overland gateway for the Middle Corridor has never been higher—precisely as its government's alignment with Western interests has never been weaker. With 8,500 Russian troops 25 miles from Tbilisi, EU candidacy frozen, and the Armenian TRIPP corridor threatening to bypass Georgian territory entirely, this CES Intelligence assessment maps three divergent pathways through 2027 for boards exposed to Caspian energy and South Caucasus transit.

CES Intelligence analyzes South Korea's 2026 geopolitical risks: North Korean nuclear maturation, US-China semiconductor tensions, KOSPI volatility, and strategic exposure across defense, technology, and energy sectors.

CES Intelligence assesses Algeria's 2026 geopolitical risk profile: political consolidation without legitimacy, hydrocarbon dependency at 93% of exports, militarised rivalry with Morocco, Sahel frontier deterioration, and a plural alignment strategy approaching its elasticity limit. Three scenarios through 2027 with implications for energy, defence, finance, and logistics sectors.

A $469 million ammunition plant producing zero usable parts, a single Polish factory making all EU's TNT, and seventy per cent Chinese cotton dependency converge into a structural constraint no Western rearmament programme has mapped. This briefing traces the energetics bottleneck beneath every defence capability.

France's trusted-cloud model has crossed the regulatory threshold. The strategic question is whether boards understand which layer of dependency the certificate leaves outside the frame.

Corporate data security models treat cryptography as a stable utility. That premise is decomposing. The NSA warns encrypted data intercepted today can be stored for later decryption when sufficiently powerful quantum computers are available. With NIST finalizing four post-quantum cryptography standards in August 2024 and implementation deadlines approaching 2030, organizations face a countdown clock—not a technological evolution, but an encryption horizon collapsing beneath

New CES Intelligence briefing reveals the lithography supply chain beneath every advanced fab is narrower than the foundry layer boards are monitoring. With ASML producing 50-60 EUV machines annually and Zeiss as sole optics provider, equipment availability—not capital—is the binding constraint on global semiconductor sovereignty through 2028.

China's mBridge settled $55.5 billion at 95% in digital yuan after the BIS walked away. 127 banks exited emerging-market correspondent relationships. Iran collected Hormuz tolls in Bitcoin. The clearing architecture beneath every cross-border transaction is splitting along geopolitical lines — and boards are still pricing it as a currency exposure.

How a cheap drone that closed the Sea of Azov, a one-way attack UAV that struck a container ship in Hormuz, and 144 unmanned incursions over NATO nuclear sites converge into a single structural shift boards have not mapped.

On 7 July 2026, Iran's military forces attacked three commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz. Within days, the US threatened to reinstate a naval blockade while EU navies gained authority to board shadow-fleet vessels across the Mediterranean. The framing error: treating sanctions enforcement as a compliance overlay when it has already migrated to the waterline.