All Reports

The gold card is real: a completed IMF programme, a record harvest and a currency that defied gravity. But Accra's recovery is collateralised by a single commodity, a diseased tree and an unguarded border. This Ghana 2026 geopolitical risk assessment maps the margin between investability and relapse — with three probability-weighted scenarios for boards.

An economy growing at 6.5% behind a garrison border, a cocoa account cut 57%, and a succession with no mechanism: this Ivory Coast geopolitical risk assessment maps the anchor state's fault lines through 2028 — three calibrated scenarios, tactical implications, and the variables boards should watch before December's EUDR gate.

Incident counts are at thirty-year lows, yet the kidnapping economy is intact, the security is rented, and the gulf's true integration runs below the waterline. A theatre-level assessment of West African energy's most consequential corridor.

Updated 10 Sep 2026 — The Sahel was not stabilized in 2026; it was monetised: Russia's Africa Corps crushed a Niamey mutiny on 29 August, Niger's uranium permit moved to a state vehicle, and the first EU return-hub model landed on 5 September. Our July regime-protection thesis has come true; this Sahel 2026 geopolitical risk assessment runs three scenarios for Q4 2026 through the 2028 consolidation window.

Updated 10 Sep 2026 — The Indian Ocean was not destabilised in 2026; it was re-priced: Hormuz conditioned rather than closed, six vessels hijacked, 60% of India's Europe-bound data riding two chokepoints. This updated Indian Ocean 2026 geopolitical risk assessment runs three scenarios from Q4 2026 through the 2028 window.

Updated 9 Sep 2026 — India was not destabilised in 2026; it was repriced: a strike ladder climbed and contained in November, a border truce without a settlement, the mother of all trade deals concluded in January, and a sanctions trigger armed in Washington. Our managed-competition baseline holds — barely. The updated assessment runs three scenarios for Q4 2026 through the 2028 US election cycle.

Updated 9 Sep 2026 — The Gulf states were not spared the 2026 war; they became its terrain: Jazan struck again in September, the corridor talks priced in percentages, the Mecca defence pact signed against Washington's wishes. Our August repair-window thesis has not survived; the updated assessment runs three scenarios through Q1 2027.

Demand for cyber cover is rising while the market that supplies it is dismantling itself. From Lloyd's state-backed exclusions to the £8bn Zurich-Beazley consolidation, the Mondelez precedent that never happened, and generative AI collapsing attack economics — CES Intelligence maps the mechanics, the actors, and the scenarios driving a decade of structural uninsurability.

Updated 7 Sep 2026 — Israel was not defeated in 2026; it won every war and lost the region they were fought for: 170 days on each reservist, both blocs short of 61 seats, and a Mecca Pact building an exclusion wall it never has to fire. Our August managed-decay baseline is already materialising; the updated assessment runs three scenarios through the 2028 transition.

Between the sealed Darién Gap and Mexico's southern border, Guatemala has become the hemisphere's most consequential unguarded corridor. This assessment maps the cartel succession auction triggered by El Mencho's death, the deportation arithmetic, the 21%-of-GDP remittance economy, and the Beijing–Taipei recognition contest ahead of the 2028 transition.

Sat on Itaipú and Yacyretá, the world's largest per-capita electricity exporter enters its Annex C renegotiation window as AI demand re-values every hydraulic megawatt — while Beijing bids for the hemisphere's last Taiwanese embassy and Ciudad del Este keeps the informal economy running. Three calibrated scenarios for boards exposed to Southern Cone energy, agro-logistics, and data infrastructure.

Bolivia sits on the largest single-basin lithium deposit on Earth, yet produces under one per cent of global supply. This Bolivia 2026 geopolitical risk assessment examines the accidental presidency, a 30% devaluation, terminal gas decline, and the unratified Chinese and Russian lithium contracts — as Washington's Shield of the Americas realigns La Paz faster than $6 billion owed to Beijing can unwind. Three scenarios, calibrated probabilities.

Two years after the August 2023 coup, Brice Oligui Nguema converted a two-year transition into a seven-year mandate with 90-plus percent of the vote — while public debt runs toward 94 percent of GDP and the oil that financed five decades of dynastic rule declines toward 200,000 barrels a day. Three calibrated scenarios and the tactical implications for sovereign-credit, extractive and banking exposure through 2029.

The binding constraint on AI in 2026 is no longer chips — it is electricity. This CES Intelligence assessment maps the megawatt wall: capacity auction repricing, turbine and transformer lead times, the nuclear race for HALEU fuel, Gulf compute migration and the political backlash that now sets the pace of AI expansion. Three scenarios, dated triggers, board-level implications.

China's rare earth export controls expire on 10 November 2026. Copper is above $13,000 a tonne. Indonesia and the DRC are turning quotas into leverage. Our Critical Minerals 2026 assessment maps the three scenarios, their triggers, and what boards must do before the gates close.

Fiscal buffers exhausted. Battlefield losses crossing the recruitment threshold. A deficit already double its plan by April. Russia 2026 is not collapsing — it is oscillating. Three scenarios, explicit triggers, and what each transmits to executive exposure.

Angola 2026 is not an oil state in crisis. It is an oil state in arithmetic. Production has slipped below one million barrels per day, the ruling party must name a successor it cannot choose, and the street has already vetoed one reform. Three scenarios, explicit triggers and board-level implications — the full assessment.

Belarus 2026 is a forward garrison in terminal conversion: Oreshnik on NATO's doorstep, an absorption timetable already drafted through 2029, a succession architecture unresolved by design, and a demographic base running out of garrisoners. Three scenarios — calibrated absorption, terminal handover, forward activation — with implications for logistics, energy, potash and defence-sector exposure.

In 2026, the attributes of Somali statehood are exercised by Turkey, priced by Gulf capitals, and claimed by a breakaway entity a UN member has now recognised. Sovereignty is not being contested — it is being allocated. Our full assessment maps three scenarios through the December 2026 AUSSOM cliff.

How a Gen Z blackout revolution, a frozen IMF tranche and Russia's Africa Corps turned the world's fourth-largest island into the Indian Ocean's next systemic risk — with three scenarios to July 2027.