All Reports

Flávio Bolsonaro's runoff lead halved in seven days, yet prediction markets still price his victory near 80%. The Brazil runoff will be decided by 33.5 million absentees — the electorate every final poll missed on 4 October.

The March 2025 border treaty ended the Kyrgyzstan Tajikistan border conflict on paper. The water, fences, and resettled villages that caused it remain — a calibrated risk assessment of what breaks the peace, and when.

Two days after Trump floated meeting Kim, Pyongyang fired its first submarine-launched cruise missiles in nearly three years. CES Intelligence reads the underwater test as summit pricing: the choreography, the funding trail, and the signals that decide the window.

Days after Trump waived sanctions on Russian diesel, Moscow's largest grid strike of the season left 600,000 Ukrainians without power. The Russian diesel deal is now the hinge between the midterms clock and Kyiv's fifth winter — one fuel stream, two sanctions architectures.

Roughly 80 trillion cubic feet sit in a basin that ships almost nothing. Our Eastern Mediterranean geopolitical risk assessment 2026 maps the collision between EastMed gas corridors, Turkey's Blue Homeland statute and Greece's rearmament — and prices the accident nobody has scheduled.

This is not a data-centre story: Norway converts grid headroom from open commodity into screened national asset for foreign hyperscalers.

Updated 13 Oct 2026 — Australia was not upgraded in 2026; it was leased: forward presence deepening at Stirling, Darwin and Pine Gap while the sovereign fleet shrinks to three second-hand hulls. Our August dependency thesis has hardened; the updated assessment runs three scenarios for Q4 2026 through the 2028 capability window.

Milei's Argentina 2027 budget is an electoral instrument disguised as a fiscal document — its assumptions will be arbitrated by a sovereign market that has stopped pricing past October 2027.

Updated 13 Oct 2026 — South Africa was not rescued in 2026; it was repriced: coalition intact but fraying, impeachment frozen not dead, a tariff wall rebuilt on three legal instruments. Our managed-decline baseline holds at 40–45%; the updated assessment runs three scenarios through Q2 2027.

Geopolitical risk by industry: CES Intelligence launches the Sector Books for six sectors. Defense & Aerospace first edition available now.

The COP31 climate summit convenes in Antalya on 9-20 November under a mandate engineered for modesty: the EU has ruled out new climate finance, Washington's chair sits empty, and global fossil fuel subsidies are heading for $1.1 trillion. CES Intelligence reads what the summit's choreography means for boards — and where the real exposure now sits.

Updated 12 Oct 2026 — Nigeria was not collapsed in 2026; it is being contained: four security fronts fracturing simultaneously, the Dangote Refinery capping upside through a 22% feedstock gap, an ECOWAS anchor cracking as Russia's Africa Corps embeds on the northern border. Our July one-party drift hypothesis has materialised; the updated assessment runs three scenarios for Q4 2026 through the 2027 electoral checkpoint.

The September 2026 Trump-Xi summit established an incident hotline between Washington and Beijing, yet neither capital can slow its own acceleration. Capability parity, chip export constraints, and verification deficits set the process ceiling. Geopolitical AI risk outpaces diplomatic capacity as frontier models converge faster than treaty-making cycles. This brief maps where protocol meets technological reality—and why the bilateral mechanism will manage collisions it cannot

Updated 10 October 2026 — Colombia was not pacified in 2026; it was re-armed: Total Peace was ended by ultimatum in August, a $1 billion American partnership was bought but not yet certified, and the armed groups left standing are larger than at any point since the 2016 accord. Our August Scenario A has come true; the updated assessment runs three scenarios through 2027.

Updated 9 Oct 2026 — Mexico was not destabilised in 2026; it was compressed: cartel-decapitated in February, downgraded in May, bilaterised in July, and still paying for nearshoring investment it physically cannot host. Our dependency-trap thesis has hardened; the updated assessment runs three scenarios for the 2027 USMCA endgame through the 2028 transition.

Microsoft's 2026 Digital Defense Report and Seoul's AI-driven bank breach wave converge on one finding: AI cyberattacks weaponize new exploits in under 24 hours while enterprises take 30 to 60 days to patch. The timing gap now has victims, regulators, and an insurance repricing schedule attached. We map the machine-speed asymmetry, the fraud monetization chain behind the stolen data fields, and the observable Q4 signals that will confirm or break this reading.

Updated 8 Oct 2026 — Egypt's Suez revenue did not collapse in 2026; it was re-financed by the war that severed it: struck at Damietta in July, rescued by rerouted Gulf crude in August, encircled by its own doctrine in October. Our August call on the Houthi and New Alamein triggers has partially fired; the updated assessment runs three scenarios for Q4 2026 through Q2 2027.

Hungary lifted its veto on Ukraine EU accession talks — but the binding constraint has shifted to Kyiv's fracturing parliament. With €20 billion in conditioned EU funding and the IMF program riding on a chamber that fails its own votes, tranche timing is now a roll-call event.

Turkey's unlicensed solar capacity now exceeds 22.5 GW, with distributed self-consumption accounting for 89% of 2025 additions. The build-out accelerates as Antalya prepares to host COP31 in November 2026. CES DAILY SIGNAL — OCTOBER 8, 2026 Bids close on 13 October for the country's 2026 renewable auction round — 2.4 GW of wind and solar offered since July — twenty-seven days before the Antalya Expo Center opens COP31 to the world's climate diplomats (Ministry of Energy and N

Mexico's 2027 budget delivers two decimals of deficit reduction — 4.1% to 3.9% of GDP — without new taxes, by withdrawing 70% of state support to Pemex on the strength of a war-driven oil rally. The IMF calls the adjustment too slow, Moody's negative outlook waits on execution, and the USMCA clock runs in parallel. Calibrated analysis of what the assumptions cost.