All Reports

Updated 21 Sep 2026 — Turkey was not rewarded in 2026; it was rented out: the Hormuz closure reactivated Kirkuk-Ceyhan (then capped it at 750 kb/d by interim accord on 1 August), CAATSA relief was announced but remains hostage to Congress, and the opposition fractured precisely when it consolidated. Our rent-extraction baseline held; the updated assessment runs three scenarios through 2027 with the lira as the leading indicator of whether the premium survives its own foundati

Restructured, not resolved: how Colombo's $38.6bn debt settlement, Beijing's refinery and Delhi's energy arteries converge on the March 2027 programme cliff — with three scenarios for boards to price.

Sovereignty in the atoll republic is now denominated in foreign exchange. This Maldives 2026 geopolitical risk assessment maps the sukuk settlement, the defended peg, the Ankara corridor and the surveillance chessboard — with three board-ready scenarios.

Namibia has become the quiet coast of the Atlantic: the world's third-largest uranium producer on the one shoreline no great power dominates, sitting on 3.5–3.8 billion undeveloped barrels while Washington, Beijing and Tokyo bid for the same molecules. This 2026 risk assessment maps the Venus FID countdown, SWAPO's centralisation reflex, the Fishrot stress test, and the corridor race against Lobito — with three scenarios and board-level implications for the twelve months ahea

A tier-one resource province wrapped around a tier-three administrative state: Porgera, Papua LNG, Wafi-Golpu and Panguna against clan-held tenure, Highland wars and the China–US auction for the Pacific. Three scenarios to 2027, with a ratification clock ticking toward 2030.

Between Moscow and Beijing, Mongolia's mineral wedge: copper replacing coal, fuel as a coercive instrument, and a selectorate that rotates premiers without renewing power.

The February 2026 Iran war was the first live audit of the Emirati model: a 90% collapse in Jebel Ali throughput, licence-free US AI chips granted weeks later, and secondary sanctions closing in on the Gulf entrepôt. This UAE geopolitical risk assessment maps the couplings — chokepoints, chips, water and demography — and prices three scenarios for 2027.

Political stability is being monetised while the debt becomes the eurozone's largest. This Italy 2026 geopolitical risk assessment maps the Mediterranean pivot's fault lines: Qatari LNG under force majeure, the PNRR post-grant cliff, 350,000 SMEs facing the ETS2 cliff, and a 2027 calendar where energy, election and fiscal file converge. Three scenarios, quantified exposure baselines, and board-level implications.

The ceasefire ended the Houthi campaign in November 2025 — yet Bab al-Mandeb transits still run at half their pre-crisis level. Why hasn't traffic returned? This Suez Canal 2026 geopolitical risk assessment maps the recovery as it actually is: tanker-led and war-shaped, constrained by charterparty inertia, insurance ratchets and a record orderbook that makes carrier patience profitable. Three scenarios to 2027.

Four FPSOs, 900,000 barrels a day, and a verdict from The Hague due between November 2026 and January 2027. The ICJ ruling will either settle the Essequibo question or weaponise it — this report maps the three trajectories, the war-risk repricing mechanism, and what boards must sequence before Q4.

Updated 15 Sep 2026 — Japan was not protected in 2026; it was besieged: rare earths zeroed since November, LNG secured by a waiver with an expiry date, deterrence priced against a ¥135.8 trillion refinancing schedule. Our July attrition baseline holds; the updated assessment runs three scenarios for the December security rewrite and the 2027 constitutional cycle.

The Bahamas and Jamaica are not peripheral tax havens — they are functioning contamination vectors. This CES Intelligence assessment reveals how drug-corruption corridors plug directly into the US correspondent banking system, with three scenarios through Q3 2027.

Updated 14 Sep 2026 — The canal was not blocked in 2026; it was narrowed: capped in September, coerced through its registry, litigated for $3.5 billion. Our July transit-reduction call has come true; the updated assessment runs three scenarios through Q1 2027.

Eighty ships boarded in the Singapore Strait in 2025 — the worst year since 1991. Beneath the world's busiest chokepoint, a corridor where sanctioned oil, criminal syndicates, and submarine survey grids share the same two shipping lanes. The Malacca Strait's risk architecture, stress-tested.

The gold card is real: a completed IMF programme, a record harvest and a currency that defied gravity. But Accra's recovery is collateralised by a single commodity, a diseased tree and an unguarded border. This Ghana 2026 geopolitical risk assessment maps the margin between investability and relapse — with three probability-weighted scenarios for boards.

An economy growing at 6.5% behind a garrison border, a cocoa account cut 57%, and a succession with no mechanism: this Ivory Coast geopolitical risk assessment maps the anchor state's fault lines through 2028 — three calibrated scenarios, tactical implications, and the variables boards should watch before December's EUDR gate.

Demand for cyber cover is rising while the market that supplies it is dismantling itself. From Lloyd's state-backed exclusions to the £8bn Zurich-Beazley consolidation, the Mondelez precedent that never happened, and generative AI collapsing attack economics — CES Intelligence maps the mechanics, the actors, and the scenarios driving a decade of structural uninsurability.

Sat on Itaipú and Yacyretá, the world's largest per-capita electricity exporter enters its Annex C renegotiation window as AI demand re-values every hydraulic megawatt — while Beijing bids for the hemisphere's last Taiwanese embassy and Ciudad del Este keeps the informal economy running. Three calibrated scenarios for boards exposed to Southern Cone energy, agro-logistics, and data infrastructure.

Bolivia sits on the largest single-basin lithium deposit on Earth, yet produces under one per cent of global supply. This Bolivia 2026 geopolitical risk assessment examines the accidental presidency, a 30% devaluation, terminal gas decline, and the unratified Chinese and Russian lithium contracts — as Washington's Shield of the Americas realigns La Paz faster than $6 billion owed to Beijing can unwind. Three scenarios, calibrated probabilities.

The binding constraint on AI in 2026 is no longer chips — it is electricity. This CES Intelligence assessment maps the megawatt wall: capacity auction repricing, turbine and transformer lead times, the nuclear race for HALEU fuel, Gulf compute migration and the political backlash that now sets the pace of AI expansion. Three scenarios, dated triggers, board-level implications.