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All Reports
THE CES BRIEF
The Precursor Problem: Europe's Pharmaceutical Supply Chain Security Gap
Europe formulates and packages medicines — but no longer makes the molecules they're built from. Even sourcing from India doesn't escape China: precursor dependency reaches 94% for some antibiotics. With the 2 April Section 232 tariffs and the 12 May Critical Medicines Act deal, pharmaceutical supply chain security is a gap Europe has barely costed.
May 269 min read
The Dollarization Paradox: Why a Weak Dollar Year Coexists With a Strengthened Dollar Architecture
The dollar had its worst year in five decades in 2025 — yet its structural dominance just slightly strengthened. Reading the paradox through 2026's Iran war.
Apr 3016 min read
Why It Matters: Geopolitical Trade Risk Through a 2026 Lens
The 2026 Strait of Hormuz crisis has made one thing clear: global trade is no longer a logistics problem but a political one. In this analysis, I step back from the noise to examine why this shift is durable, what the $1.4 trillion capex cycle really signals, and how three plausible scenarios should shape the way companies and investors position themselves through 2030.
Apr 179 min read
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