All Reports

Updated 14 Sep 2026 — Cuba was not defeated in 2026; it was switched off: the grid at cold-start threshold, the negotiation track dead since 7 September, and the oil lifelines contractually sealed by the US–Venezuela deal. Our July sustained-pressure baseline still holds; the updated assessment runs three scenarios from the 24 September Trump–Xi summit through mid-2027.

Eighty ships boarded in the Singapore Strait in 2025 — the worst year since 1991. Beneath the world's busiest chokepoint, a corridor where sanctioned oil, criminal syndicates, and submarine survey grids share the same two shipping lanes. The Malacca Strait's risk architecture, stress-tested.

Chad 2026 is not a weak state; it is an over-subscribed one. This Chad 2026 geopolitical risk assessment maps a garrison state where jihadist administrations out-tax governments, an Emirati air bridge feeds Sudan's war, and national solvency hangs from a single pipeline. Three scenarios, calibrated probabilities, and implications for logistics, energy and compliance exposure across the Lake Chad Basin.

The gold card is real: a completed IMF programme, a record harvest and a currency that defied gravity. But Accra's recovery is collateralised by a single commodity, a diseased tree and an unguarded border. This Ghana 2026 geopolitical risk assessment maps the margin between investability and relapse — with three probability-weighted scenarios for boards.

An economy growing at 6.5% behind a garrison border, a cocoa account cut 57%, and a succession with no mechanism: this Ivory Coast geopolitical risk assessment maps the anchor state's fault lines through 2028 — three calibrated scenarios, tactical implications, and the variables boards should watch before December's EUDR gate.

Incident counts are at thirty-year lows, yet the kidnapping economy is intact, the security is rented, and the gulf's true integration runs below the waterline. A theatre-level assessment of West African energy's most consequential corridor.

Updated 10 Sep 2026 — The Sahel was not stabilized in 2026; it was monetised: Russia's Africa Corps crushed a Niamey mutiny on 29 August, Niger's uranium permit moved to a state vehicle, and the first EU return-hub model landed on 5 September. Our July regime-protection thesis has come true; this Sahel 2026 geopolitical risk assessment runs three scenarios for Q4 2026 through the 2028 consolidation window.

Updated 10 Sep 2026 — The Indian Ocean was not destabilised in 2026; it was re-priced: Hormuz conditioned rather than closed, six vessels hijacked, 60% of India's Europe-bound data riding two chokepoints. This updated Indian Ocean 2026 geopolitical risk assessment runs three scenarios from Q4 2026 through the 2028 window.

Updated 9 Sep 2026 — India was not destabilised in 2026; it was repriced: a strike ladder climbed and contained in November, a border truce without a settlement, the mother of all trade deals concluded in January, and a sanctions trigger armed in Washington. Our managed-competition baseline holds — barely. The updated assessment runs three scenarios for Q4 2026 through the 2028 US election cycle.

Updated 9 Sep 2026 — The Gulf states were not spared the 2026 war; they became its terrain: Jazan struck again in September, the corridor talks priced in percentages, the Mecca defence pact signed against Washington's wishes. Our August repair-window thesis has not survived; the updated assessment runs three scenarios through Q1 2027.

Updated 7 Sep 2026 — Israel was not defeated in 2026; it won every war and lost the region they were fought for: 170 days on each reservist, both blocs short of 61 seats, and a Mecca Pact building an exclusion wall it never has to fire. Our August managed-decay baseline is already materialising; the updated assessment runs three scenarios through the 2028 transition.

Sat on Itaipú and Yacyretá, the world's largest per-capita electricity exporter enters its Annex C renegotiation window as AI demand re-values every hydraulic megawatt — while Beijing bids for the hemisphere's last Taiwanese embassy and Ciudad del Este keeps the informal economy running. Three calibrated scenarios for boards exposed to Southern Cone energy, agro-logistics, and data infrastructure.

Bolivia sits on the largest single-basin lithium deposit on Earth, yet produces under one per cent of global supply. This Bolivia 2026 geopolitical risk assessment examines the accidental presidency, a 30% devaluation, terminal gas decline, and the unratified Chinese and Russian lithium contracts — as Washington's Shield of the Americas realigns La Paz faster than $6 billion owed to Beijing can unwind. Three scenarios, calibrated probabilities.

Two years after the August 2023 coup, Brice Oligui Nguema converted a two-year transition into a seven-year mandate with 90-plus percent of the vote — while public debt runs toward 94 percent of GDP and the oil that financed five decades of dynastic rule declines toward 200,000 barrels a day. Three calibrated scenarios and the tactical implications for sovereign-credit, extractive and banking exposure through 2029.

The binding constraint on AI in 2026 is no longer chips — it is electricity. This CES Intelligence assessment maps the megawatt wall: capacity auction repricing, turbine and transformer lead times, the nuclear race for HALEU fuel, Gulf compute migration and the political backlash that now sets the pace of AI expansion. Three scenarios, dated triggers, board-level implications.

China's rare earth export controls expire on 10 November 2026. Copper is above $13,000 a tonne. Indonesia and the DRC are turning quotas into leverage. Our Critical Minerals 2026 assessment maps the three scenarios, their triggers, and what boards must do before the gates close.

Fiscal buffers exhausted. Battlefield losses crossing the recruitment threshold. A deficit already double its plan by April. Russia 2026 is not collapsing — it is oscillating. Three scenarios, explicit triggers, and what each transmits to executive exposure.

Angola 2026 is not an oil state in crisis. It is an oil state in arithmetic. Production has slipped below one million barrels per day, the ruling party must name a successor it cannot choose, and the street has already vetoed one reform. Three scenarios, explicit triggers and board-level implications — the full assessment.

How a Gen Z blackout revolution, a frozen IMF tranche and Russia's Africa Corps turned the world's fourth-largest island into the Indian Ocean's next systemic risk — with three scenarios to July 2027.

Qatar in 2026 is a system whose three foundational pillars — LNG wealth, mediation access, and US military protection — are being damaged simultaneously by a conflict it did not start and cannot control. The overstretch is not Qatar's. The overreach belongs to Washington and Tehran. But the consequences are Qatar's. The question is whether the model that made this microstate more powerful than its size justified survives in recognisable form.