All Reports

Updated 14 Sep 2026 — The Arctic was not opened in 2026; it was repossessed: 42 Russian icebreakers against two American hulls, $6.82 billion in EU LNG payments funding Moscow's war machine, and an alliance fractured by Washington's own Greenland claim. Our July sustained-dominance scenario is materialising on schedule; the updated geopolitical risk assessment runs three scenarios from the January 2027 embargo to the 2028 icebreaker gap.

Updated 13 Sep 2026 — The 26 June Trilateral Framework survived its own expiry but failed to resolve what it postponed. Disarmament and ceasefire have been decoupled; the economy contracted 6.4% after a 4.2% recovery in 2025; UNIFIL's mandate expires on 31 December. Our July assessment has been updated with three pathways for Q4 2026 through the 2028 transition: containment drift, escalation spiral, and intra-state fracture.

Chad 2026 is not a weak state; it is an over-subscribed one. This Chad 2026 geopolitical risk assessment maps a garrison state where jihadist administrations out-tax governments, an Emirati air bridge feeds Sudan's war, and national solvency hangs from a single pipeline. Three scenarios, calibrated probabilities, and implications for logistics, energy and compliance exposure across the Lake Chad Basin.

Updated 10 Sep 2026 — The Sahel was not stabilized in 2026; it was monetised: Russia's Africa Corps crushed a Niamey mutiny on 29 August, Niger's uranium permit moved to a state vehicle, and the first EU return-hub model landed on 5 September. Our July regime-protection thesis has come true; this Sahel 2026 geopolitical risk assessment runs three scenarios for Q4 2026 through the 2028 consolidation window.

Updated 10 Sep 2026 — The Indian Ocean was not destabilised in 2026; it was re-priced: Hormuz conditioned rather than closed, six vessels hijacked, 60% of India's Europe-bound data riding two chokepoints. This updated Indian Ocean 2026 geopolitical risk assessment runs three scenarios from Q4 2026 through the 2028 window.

Updated 9 Sep 2026 — The Gulf states were not spared the 2026 war; they became its terrain: Jazan struck again in September, the corridor talks priced in percentages, the Mecca defence pact signed against Washington's wishes. Our August repair-window thesis has not survived; the updated assessment runs three scenarios through Q1 2027.

Updated 7 Sep 2026 — Israel was not defeated in 2026; it won every war and lost the region they were fought for: 170 days on each reservist, both blocs short of 61 seats, and a Mecca Pact building an exclusion wall it never has to fire. Our August managed-decay baseline is already materialising; the updated assessment runs three scenarios through the 2028 transition.

Belarus 2026 is a forward garrison in terminal conversion: Oreshnik on NATO's doorstep, an absorption timetable already drafted through 2029, a succession architecture unresolved by design, and a demographic base running out of garrisoners. Three scenarios — calibrated absorption, terminal handover, forward activation — with implications for logistics, energy, potash and defence-sector exposure.

In 2026, the attributes of Somali statehood are exercised by Turkey, priced by Gulf capitals, and claimed by a breakaway entity a UN member has now recognised. Sovereignty is not being contested — it is being allocated. Our full assessment maps three scenarios through the December 2026 AUSSOM cliff.

How a Gen Z blackout revolution, a frozen IMF tranche and Russia's Africa Corps turned the world's fourth-largest island into the Indian Ocean's next systemic risk — with three scenarios to July 2027.

In 2026, Jordan has been transformed from logistics hub to target theatre. Our assessment maps three pathways through 2027 with calibrated probabilities and sector implications.

The republic sits at the intersection of EU accession momentum, Russian hybrid warfare escalation, and the most significant degradation of the Transnistria separatist project since 1992. This analysis examines the narrow window for reintegration versus disruption.

Poland is executing Europe's largest defence build-up since the Cold War — 4.8% GDP spending, an anti-drone wall, Eastern Shield fortifications, and $50B in US weapons. Yet a political crisis between President Nawrocki and Prime Minister Tusk, Trump's volatile troop decisions, and active Russian grey-zone probing expose institutional fractures beneath the steel and concrete. Three scenarios, sectoral implications, and the core analytical judgment your board needs.

Myanmar's territorial fragmentation has made it the world's most consequential critical-mineral dependency held by no sovereign. Roughly half the global heavy rare-earth supply is extracted under ethnic armed group control along the China border, while Beijing's $7.3bn Kyaukpyu deep-sea port — built to bypass the Strait of Malacca — now sits in Arakan Army territory. This assessment maps the supply-chain, infrastructure, and strategic implications through three calibrated sce

North Korea's strongest strategic position since 1993: a self-financing weapons economy, a militarised Russia corridor weeks from completion, and a US deterrent degrading in real time. Three scenarios, calibrated probabilities, and the board-level implications.

A comprehensive analysis of Mozambique's 2026 geopolitical risk landscape: the $60 billion LNG pipeline faces existential threat as Rwanda's security deployment fractures amid US sanctions, the EU withdraws funding, and ISIS-affiliated insurgents adapt to the vacuum.

Syria in 2026 is more open to international capital than it has been in over a decade — and more fragile than at any point since the civil war's most intense phase. Sanctions lifted, institutions absent, sectarian violence unresolved, and $216 billion in reconstruction needs flowing into a governance vacuum. Three scenarios through Q3 2027.

Libya 2026: Record oil production meets institutional collapse. The Dbeibeh-Haftar duopoly has formalised under US auspices while the Africa Corps expands across Fezzan. Three calibrated scenarios for Q3 2027 with implications for investors, security managers, and migration policy. CES Intelligence geopolitical risk assessment.

How Russia's below-threshold aggression, Romanian institutional collapse, and the Danube energy crisis converge on NATO's most vulnerable frontier — with implications for energy markets, defence procurement, and supply-chain resilience across Southeast Europe.

A $469 million ammunition plant producing zero usable parts, a single Polish factory making all EU's TNT, and seventy per cent Chinese cotton dependency converge into a structural constraint no Western rearmament programme has mapped. This briefing traces the energetics bottleneck beneath every defence capability.