Updated 12 Oct 2026 — Nigeria was not collapsed in 2026; it is being contained: four security fronts fracturing simultaneously, the Dangote Refinery capping upside through a 22% feedstock gap, an ECOWAS anchor cracking as Russia's Africa Corps embeds on the northern border. Our July one-party drift hypothesis has materialised; the updated assessment runs three scenarios for Q4 2026 through the 2027 electoral checkpoint.
