All Reports

Updated September 21, 2026 — The southern flank of NATO was not assumed in 2026; it was tested. Rota-Morón access denied, Ceuta breached at scale, PP-Vox transition now probable, Russian LNG window closing by January 2027. Our July analysis flagged three scenarios; the updated Spain 2026 geopolitical risk assessment recalibrates probabilities through November 6 and maps implications for defence, automotive, energy and insurance exposure across the Iberian footprint.

Updated 15 Sep 2026 — Nicaragua was not defeated by sanctions in 2026; it was foreclosed: elections abolished in July, a Russian military pact ratified with jurisdictional immunity in May, a Chinese port hub operational on the Pacific. The fortress holds while American bandwidth is spent elsewhere; this updated assessment runs three scenarios through the 2028 hardening window.

Updated 14 Sep 2026 — Brazil was not holding an election in 2026; it was collecting rent on great-power competition: tariffs locked in July, China negotiations accelerated in August, and a Supreme Court probe opened three weeks before the vote. Our July baseline has recalibrated to a statistical tie; the update runs three scenarios through the 2027 transition.

Updated 14 Sep 2026 — Cuba was not defeated in 2026; it was switched off: the grid at cold-start threshold, the negotiation track dead since 7 September, and the oil lifelines contractually sealed by the US–Venezuela deal. Our July sustained-pressure baseline still holds; the updated assessment runs three scenarios from the 24 September Trump–Xi summit through mid-2027.

Updated 9 Sep 2026 — India was not destabilised in 2026; it was repriced: a strike ladder climbed and contained in November, a border truce without a settlement, the mother of all trade deals concluded in January, and a sanctions trigger armed in Washington. Our managed-competition baseline holds — barely. The updated assessment runs three scenarios for Q4 2026 through the 2028 US election cycle.

Two years after the August 2023 coup, Brice Oligui Nguema converted a two-year transition into a seven-year mandate with 90-plus percent of the vote — while public debt runs toward 94 percent of GDP and the oil that financed five decades of dynastic rule declines toward 200,000 barrels a day. Three calibrated scenarios and the tactical implications for sovereign-credit, extractive and banking exposure through 2029.

Qatar in 2026 is a system whose three foundational pillars — LNG wealth, mediation access, and US military protection — are being damaged simultaneously by a conflict it did not start and cannot control. The overstretch is not Qatar's. The overreach belongs to Washington and Tehran. But the consequences are Qatar's. The question is whether the model that made this microstate more powerful than its size justified survives in recognisable form.

This 2026 geopolitical risk assessment finds that the United Kingdom is a state whose strategic ambition is accelerating past its industrial, fiscal, and political capacity to sustain it. The crown is not hollow yet—but the metal is thinning.

Following Péter Magyar's April 2026 supermajority victory ending sixteen years of Orbán rule, this Hungary geopolitical risk assessment 2026 maps the structural constraints on democratic transition: judicial capture, media monopoly, Druzhba oil dependency, and the Paks II Russian nuclear entanglement. Three scenarios through 2028 with calibrated probabilities.

Yerevan is executing the most pronounced geopolitical realignment in the South Caucasus in three decades — freezing CSTO cooperation, pursuing EU membership, and partnering with the United States — while remaining dependent on Russia for energy and exposed to Iranian grey-zone pressure over the Syunik corridor. Three calibrated scenarios through 2028.

The United States is applying trade coercion against NATO allies to compel cession of sovereign Danish territory. As Trump's 2029 timeline compresses, Denmark deploys conscripts for the first time in history, NATO launches Arctic Sentry, and a Texas oil firm moves 300 containers of drilling equipment onto Arctic soil without permits. Three scenarios map the probable pathways through 2027-2028.

THE MUSANDAM PENINSULA AT DAWN — The geographic fulcrum of the Strait of Hormuz, where commercial traffic has collapsed from approximately 130 vessels per day to fewer than ten by August 2026. The sultanate stands between Iran, which threatens to close the waterway, and the United States, which has threatened to bomb Omani territory if mediation efforts interfere with Washington's objectives.

Tunisia 2026: Five years after Saied's constitutional coup, the Arab Spring's birthplace faces energy collapse, silent deindustrialisation, and institutional hollowing — sustained by dependencies on Algerian gas, European migration funding, and US security cooperation it cannot control.

Berlin is rearming at unprecedented speed while its industrial base relocates, its political consensus fractures, and Russian hybrid operations escalate from espionage to kinetic sabotage. The FCAS termination, the AfD's march toward state governance, and the death of the German economic model converge on a single reality: Europe's anchor is accumulating commitments it cannot sustain.

The Western Balkans is where US disengagement, Russian-China strategic insertion, and the Dayton-KFOR framework dismantling converge. This 19-minute analysis maps three scenarios through 2027-2028, including the Mitrovica trigger (30% probability) and Dayton's collapse (15%). For executives with exposure to European supply chains, energy assets, or NATO planning.

From $77B banking gap to South China Sea escalation — CES Intelligence maps Vietnam 2026 geopolitical risk across three scenarios for executive decision-making.

Five years after the Taliban's return, Afghanistan is a functioning authoritarian state whose stability is an illusion. Pakistan has declared "open war," ISKP operates as a jihadist sanctuary hosting 21 groups and 23,000 fighters, China's $2.8B Mes Aynak gamble runs under extremist veto, and the Kandahar-Kabul split is widening. CES Intelligence assesses three scenarios through Q3 2027 — and the implications for boards exposed to South Asian logistics, critical minerals, and

The first free election in two decades produced a government. It did not produce the institutions that government needs to succeed. Bangladesh's democratic gamble unfolds amid an Islamist opposition surge, a fractured Indian relationship, China's $9 billion Bay of Bengal embedding, and a banking sector with the world's second-highest NPL ratio. Three scenarios for boards and executive teams.

The United States threatens 50% tariffs on $20B of Canadian exports. USMCA review triggers annual volatility. Alberta separatism escalates. Three scenarios mapped.

France's trusted-cloud model has crossed the regulatory threshold. The strategic question is whether boards understand which layer of dependency the certificate leaves outside the frame.