CES INTELLIGENCE

Updated 30 Oct 2026 — Canada was not broken in 2026; it was billed: tariffed in August, rallied in October, and hiked into its own inflation. Our August stress-test scenarios have partially come true; the updated assessment runs three scenarios for the post-midterm window through Q4 2027.

An 87-5 Senate vote has opened the door to five and a half months of US special-operations training on Mexican soil — the fourth such authorisation in a year. Whether the next request still fits inside the word "training" is now a question of precedent, not of principle.

Golden hour ends over the ECB's twin towers; the decision made inside outlasts the sunset. Photo: CES Intelligence / Generated imagery CES DAILY SIGNAL — October 30, 2026 On Thursday afternoon in Frankfurt, the Governing Council of the European Central Bank left its deposit rate unchanged at 2.50 percent — its second hold after the two quarter-point increases it delivered earlier this year — despite euro-area inflation running at a three-year high of 3.8 percent in September,